Science Target Conference Systems, Ajman 4th International Environment Conference 2016

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Environmental Sustainability and Effects on Urban Micro Region using Agent-Based Modeling of Urbanisation in Select Major Indian Cities
Bharath Haridas Aithal

Last modified: 2015-09-20

Abstract


Urbanization has gained momentum with globalization in India.  Policy decisions to set up commercial, industrial hubs have fuelled large scale migration, added with population upsurge needs to be monitored in order to design sustainable urban cities. Unplanned urbanization have resulted in the growth of peri-urban region referred to as urban sprawl, are often devoid of basic amenities and infrastructure leading to large scale environmental problems. Remote sensing data acquired through space borne sensors at regular interval helps in understanding urban dynamics aided by Geoinfomatics. Cellular automata (CA) is a robust approach for the spatially explicit simulation of land-use land cover dynamics. Performance of CA is considered to be accurate, but the process is influenced by stochastic decisions that may result in unrealistic pattern. We introduces agent based modelling through fuzzy characteristics and analytical hierarchal process (AHP). This considers agents of growth for better prediction. Prediction was carried out for three major cities of India. Validation was performed obtaining a high kappa coefficient indicating the quality and the allocation performance. Urban growth is predicted for 2030. Environmental sustainability of each of these cities are explored such as water, greenhouse gas emissions, effects on human health etc., Modeling suggests trend of various land use classes transformation with the spurt in urban expansions based on specific regions and policies providing a visual spatial information to smart city initiative. Sustainability assessment indicates dwindling natural resources and increase in thermal discomfort to the population thereby indicating need for balanced and planned development.